US: decline in natural gas production
Natural gas production across all major shale regions in the US Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) is projected to decrease for the first time in September. Production from these seven shale regions reached a high in May at 46 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) and is expected to decline to 45 Bcf/d in September. In each region, production from new wells is not large enough to offset production declines from existing, legacy wells.
In any given month, new-well production depends on the number of drilling rigs and the productivity of those rigs and the wells added through their use. As rig counts fall, increases in rig productivity are necessary not only to compensate for the reduced rig total, but also for rising levels of legacy-well declines. Several external factors could affect the estimates, such as bad weather, shut-ins based on environmental or economic issues, variations in the quality and frequency of state production data, and infrastructure constraints.
